Tuesday, October 18, 2016

The Election Is Over

The magic number is 270.

In case you're still wondering about the US election, you can rest easy. Clinton will win. The only remaining doubt is how large the margin of victory will be. Most significantly, she is ahead in the states that matter, those with a large number of electoral votes.  Of the six states with the most electors - California (55), Texas (38), New York )29), Florida (29), Illinois (20) and Pennsylvania (20) - Clinton is slated to win California, New York and Illinois; Trump has a good chance of taking Texas; Florida and Pennsylvania are leaning heavily toward Clinton.

The popular vote will be somewhat, but not nail bitingly, close. Probably around 49% Clinton to 43% Trump. But the electoral vote will be much closer, around 344 to 193. There is no way Trump can make it to 270.

Feel better?


  1. I just hope you are right Shawn ...... we said the same about Brexit and look what happened there !!!!! I have my fingers crossed ! XXXX

  2. Phew - the only trouble will be the continued disbelief by the rest of the world that he got so far or so close. Much damage has been done to his beloved USA which will take years to mend.

    1. The damage could turn out to be a blessing in disguise by shaking up electoral politics in the US. I would welcome a viable third party, which we've never had.

    2. Yes, that is a strange system. At least the Monster Raving Looney Party is on the fringe here, and not the only alternative.